https://gam.gi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/gamlogo.png 0 0 Mark Maloney https://gam.gi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/gamlogo.png Mark Maloney2021-12-06 12:39:282021-12-06 12:39:28Market Commentary December 2021
The coronavirus is nothing if not persistent. With Delta and overall cases seeming to have peaked, along came the Omicron variant to spoil our Christmas plans. The markets reacted predictably with government bond yields falling dramatically. Fortunately, the very preliminary news is that the symptoms of Omicron infection are no more severe than those produced by “regular” COVID-19. But many countries are already restricting international flights, and the fear is that Omicron will proliferate as people gather indoors in the cold winter months. The new variant could prove to be nothing out of the ordinary, or the trigger for another global economic shutdown. The reality is likely somewhere in the middle, as it often is.
https://gam.gi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/gamlogo.png 0 0 Mark Maloney https://gam.gi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/gamlogo.png Mark Maloney2021-11-08 11:29:232021-11-08 12:02:37Market Commentary November 2021
Inflation remains the number-one topic in the stock market. Goods scarcity is impacting every industry, and the price of everything is higher. Yet despite this, corporate earnings remain solid. Earnings grew over 50% in Q1 and over 80% in Q2; the first-quarter comp was against a COVID-impacted Q1 2020, while the second quarter compared against the economic lockdown quarter of Q2 2020. The comp for the third quarter will not be as easy as the first-half 2020 comparisons. Nonetheless, earnings released so far are up more than 30% year-over-year and companies are beating expectations by a wider-than-average margin. That bodes well for supporting an already-high stock market valuation.
https://gam.gi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/gamlogo.png 0 0 Mark Maloney https://gam.gi/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/gamlogo.png Mark Maloney2021-10-04 11:28:282021-10-04 11:29:13Market Commentary October 2021
September has presented the latest challenge to this bull market. The “September Effect”, as it is sometimes called, is often attributed to investors returning from holiday and starting to position for year-end. These investors may sell shares to lock in gains or capture tax losses to offset gains. Some may also be selling to acquire school gear for their children, which is not so much pens and notebooks these days but PCs and tablets. Why does this happen so often you may ask - if calendar events are so known, why are they not arbitraged away? It is because investor’s knowledge of past market patterns can make for self-fulfilling prophecies. This year, we view the September selling as a healthy and likely overdue shakeout of market excesses.