Market Commentary – September 2019

After a relatively tame first seven months of the year, volatility spiked in August. The market is oscillating to trade rumours as it has done for the past two years, but with a twist: scepticism is building, concern is deepening and fresh promises of “trade truce coming” no longer provide a lasting lift for stocks. In a reversal of the multiyear trend, selloffs have become bone-rattling. Down sessions are fiercer than buy-the-dip rallies, several of which have faded away into the close. On top of that, investors are having to contend with potential pitfalls on multiple fronts – Brexit, yield-curve inversions, negative global bond yields, concerns over corporate profits, massive debt, weak global growth and global warming.

Gibraltar Chronicle August 2019

Our latest article on the stock market, as published in the Gibraltar Chronicle.

Market Commentary August 2019

After a highly positive first half for stocks, equities have come into numerous crosswinds in recent weeks. A setback in China trade negotiations led the Trump administration to announce tariffs on an additional $300bn of Chinese goods as from 1st September. China retaliated by devaluing its currency and halting purchases of US agricultural products. The yield curve has also taken on a worrisome shape, flashing potential recession signals. We see further stock market volatility in the weeks ahead as volumes remain low. The market does not take much of a summer holiday, not like in the old days, but traders and investors still start to vanish throughout the month of August.

Gibraltar Chronicle July 2019

Our latest article on the stock market, as published in the Gibraltar Chronicle

Market Commentary July 2019

Who’s afraid of the big, bad bear? Not insiders so it seems. For all the headline noise from trade, tweets, oil prices, geopolitical fears, Brexit, interest rates and the ageing bull, insiders continue to show no fear. When equity markets move higher, as they have been doing of late, we typically see purchases from corporate executives and directors start to slow. That is very different from seeing this group start to sell, which is a big warning that stocks may have come too far too fast. Yet in this current uptrend, insiders have continued to acquire shares in a manner that tells us they are perfectly comfortable with the enthusiasm that is being displayed by “normal” investors. This shows there seems to be few worries from those who arguably are in the best position to judge the future prospects for publicly traded companies.

Gibraltar Chronicle June 2019

Our latest article on the stock market, as published in the Gibraltar Chronicle

Market Commentary June 2019

The stock market hit its first real rough patch of the year in May as trade relations between the US and China continued to deteriorate. Stocks were broadly advancing across the first four months of 2019, with all sectors participating, small-caps joining large-caps in the winner’s cycle, and most investing styles up nicely for the year. Now the market is no longer trading on fundamentals or technicals. We have entered a one-topic market. The topic is tariffs

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Gibraltar Chronicle May 2019

Our latest article on the stock market, as published in the Gibraltar Chronicle

Market Commentary May 2019

The final full trading week in April was an historical one for the US stock market, as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both reached all-time closing highs. The bull market could not have climbed so high in such a short span without a formidable wall of worry. The year began with the market beset with worries: about interest rates, the economy and the Mueller Report. One by one, those worries have melted away. The Fed has not quite reversed course, despite calls for rate cuts, but has definitively hung up the “closed for the season” sign. Economic figures have been robust and the Mueller Report means the headline risk of a severe Washington upheaval is severely diminished.