The odds are increasing for a potential recession in the second half of 2023. The banking system seems to be back on its feet after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse; but the implications for loan and credit availability are uncertain and could play out unpredictably in the coming months. For all that, the FTSE 100 is up 3% year-to-date. The stock market is of course anticipatory, and investors are looking past near-term challenges. Up ahead, they see the end of the Bank of England’s rate-hiking cycle, stabilisation and eventual reduction in inflation, and – hope springs eternal in – the BoE successfully navigating the economy into a soft landing.