Most investors will be happy to see the back of 2022. It has been a year where everything went against both the stock and bond markets. Much of the pain was self-inflicted – as too much liquidity led to out-of-control inflation and then central banks were far behind the curve (and have been playing catch up ever since). Too much liquidity led to bubbles in the mega-caps in 2021 and mega bubbles in tech stocks, most of which had scorching revenue growth but were not profitable. Some of these names went up 200%, 300%, and 400% – performance reminiscent of the late 1990s tech bubble. The biggest bubble was in crypto, as a generation of “20 somethings” took the financial world by storm, sending Bitcoin to $69,000 in late 2021 from $4,000 in early 2020 and then back to ~$17,000 today. All bubbles eventually pop – and then things get very ugly, as they have this year. We project that 2023 will not be nearly as dramatic, as so much bad news has already been reflected in stock and bond prices.
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