A new month, a new quarter, good riddance to the old. It’s been rough of late, with all asset classes falling hard and fast. There are many market conditions that investors need to evaluate: inflation, interest rates, dollar strength, global monetary policies, geopolitics, bond-yield inversions, rising volatility, and corporate earnings. Still, central banks have been clear: the focus needs to be on inflation, inflation, and inflation. That suggests investors are being forced to prioritise how the overall economy is holding up against steady and large interest-rate hikes. The Fed believes that its harsh medicine will work, but not instantaneously. It expects inflation to grow in the US by 5.4% in 2022, 2.8% in 2023, and 2.3% in 2024, finally reaching its target of 2.0% in 2025. So much for transitory but at least 2023 is looking much brighter.
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