Investors study the yield curve for signs of pending economic softness; a key indicator is when short-term rates push above longer-term rates. That does not normally happen, given that investors expect to be paid a higher rate of return for committing money for a longer period. When rates push higher at the short end, that suggests that the long-term outlook is poor. Investors looking for recession indicators typically focus on the relation between yields on the two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, called the “two-10s spread.” This recently inverted. The last dozen times the two-10s spread inverted, the US subsequently experienced some degree of economic slowing, several times resulting in a recession.
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