America’s financial titans are coming to a consensus: We are on the early edge of the biggest economic boom since World War II, with the promise of years of growth after the containment of the pandemic. They might be wrong, but all point to the same data – this expansion will be kickstarted by trillions in spending from Presidents Trump and Biden, the Fed’s easy money, and piles of cash that consumers and companies accumulated during the COVID shutdown. This is likely to be a global phenomenon, because the Biden administration’s spending will have ripple effects around the world. Governments’ actions in response to the pandemic has raised global GDP growth by a full six percentage points, estimates the IMF, adding that “the global growth contraction last year could have been three times worse than it was”. Still, total output shrank so much – by a stunning 3.3% in total – that there’s now an unprecedented amount of slack in the global economy. In other words: The world has more potential upside than ever.
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